NIA takes part in regular CBI briefings on Brexit.
Brexit
The thinking was that trade deal needs to be reached by 15 October to allow time for it to be implemented in the EU Council meeting however this deadline has passed and talks continue, albeit with increasing pressure of time.
The troublesome Internal Market Bill (issues for Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement) is unlikely to be passed until December and will happen after the trade deal, so if there is a deal, there are no issues. However if there is a no deal scenario, then this could be a problem. The feeling in some quarters is that deal cannot be reached, however with US election results this may being pressure to bear.
CBI reports that various EU actors find that the UK cannot be trusted. the Internal Market Bill does not help this and may have nudged some small number of EU states to think that a no deal may be an inevitable outcome.
No deal remains on the table, but a deal still remains possible and both sides continue to negotiate.
There may be some movement around state aid, which is seen as one of the big roadblocks.
An extension is still discussed, but it is highly unlikely. Some businesses think that extension is still possible and Government may seek to blame companies for not preparing, as well as the EU for no deal.
Preparedness has been impacted by Covid. Stockpiles have been burned through and many firms are not as ready as they were in 2019.
Companies have to realise that it is not business as usual. Gove’s announcement on lorries is a message that firms need to start preparing. Companies should check their earlier 2019 planning. Some of the technical notices have been withdrawn from both UK and EU side.
A deal development with the EU is likely to drag on for years yet, with either a 'thin' FTA or if no-deal Brexit happens.
CBI wants to make to clear about the impact of no deal and will work with other trade associations to make the case. Feeding in any sector specific details will be really useful. CBI DG seeing Gove soon and useful anecdotes would help about the impact of no deal and what the issues are.
